TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,932
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,932 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes7c5,715$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.694,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes1c4,101$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.761,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes9c2,099$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3813728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe90a…07e8backed Yes1c1,184$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8411636.2%42 W · 74 L-0.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-44.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2944…031abacked No66c677.97$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.511353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes23c577.16$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8923633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes24c477.2$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.567644.7%34 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No64c429.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.128737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed No78c327.07$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.779747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No57c311.17$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.763,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.692,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No63c299.98$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9916335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No76c263$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1281165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf598…56f9backed Yes35c236.62$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No68c222.81$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.494,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No73c219.07$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1511652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes45c210.85$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4810141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes30c203.71$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.334050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c192.07$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa811…75b8backed No63c173.54$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.856070%42 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes17c159.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed No70c149.79$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.21758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes13c142.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.85,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc017…9f26backed Yes33c140.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.661233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72e5…6412backed No70c136.81$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.042744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes21c133.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes8c131.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes34c124.68$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.022445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc203…1ad2backed Yes33c123.48$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.061827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x381c…aae8backed Yes28c118.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.751127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c112.25$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.049,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c111.26$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.491,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes26c105.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes30c94.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8316840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes19c92.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No61c92.34$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.712,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No71c91.28$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5969520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No67c88.37$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.373,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceac…fa1fbacked No70c87.3$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No63c78.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No72c75.34$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.163143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d5…afecbacked Yes36c74.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes25c73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.630428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No74c71.25$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5286173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No63c67.08$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.54,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9540…9f9abacked Yes34c66.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.631241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x561a…7be2backed Yes27c64.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.377715.6%12 W · 65 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f94…8ffebacked Yes26c64.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.871233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+126.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x704d…aceebacked No56c64.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.481428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No69c62.82$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f6…91d5backed Yes36c60.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.691650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes31c59.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6762137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe505…3068backed Yes31c58.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71a2…e17dbacked Yes33c56.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.661540%6 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-33.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3310…545dbacked Yes19c56.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.922222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked Yes33c55.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.674124.4%10 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes19c55.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4825449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No69c50.71$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7262770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1856543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1028441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes24c49.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.996829.4%20 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No72c49.4$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8654867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes27c48.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3540741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc245…bccbbacked No69c48.45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a05…d7b9backed Yes31c48.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.95333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No61c47.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5210163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30ba…f4febacked No71c46.15$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.41742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7284…b0f2backed Yes30c45.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8211242%47 W · 65 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes28c44.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2459125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x25f8…5274backed Yes34c42.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes33c41.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes34c39.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4693734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No74c39.61$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.444646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb211…10b3backed Yes27c39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.399453.2%50 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed No70c38.18$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.454731.9%15 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No68c37.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.052,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d22…245cbacked Yes29c37.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.916026.7%16 W · 44 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa65f…4329backed Yes32c37.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.121241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No78c37.16$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1870770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09a8…aff0backed No70c37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.114944.3%66 W · 83 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23e…2623backed No68c36.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.72755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No76c35.79$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No72c34.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4242857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No63c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9152571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.051,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e03…7d65backed No79c28.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.962075%15 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No62c28.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7321676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No67c28.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.221,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…9e6cbacked No70c27.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.54766%31 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46f…3cbcbacked No71c27.48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.064742.6%20 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked No72c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.561,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9024…728cbacked No68c26.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No74c26.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8419772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No55c26.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7354857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No76c25.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.244,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3afa…da02backed No60c25.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No63c24.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0914671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No64c22.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.121,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.