Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31b0034e1a181ce02e6c253231a5ef49e07785600ef6febd0506334bf9bd1cd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 0c | 4,543$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 16c | 2,078$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.3 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 13c | 590.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 11c | 554.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 524.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 350.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 71c | 258.91$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 255.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…5a0abacked Yes | 20c | 219.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d0…6fb4backed Yes | 32c | 213.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 184.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f31…fd32backed Yes | 15c | 153.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…2e9cbacked Yes | 14c | 147.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 14c | 141.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 14c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 15c | 128.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 126.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 17c | 117.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 10c | 110.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 110.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked Yes | 14c | 102.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 21c | 100.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 20c | 97.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 13c | 91.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed No | 79c | 70.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 59.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 29.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 22.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 76c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 17.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 80c | 15.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.