MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x130a698206c28a0238020403aab22ceb13b3a0e2b800b86d89f734c65b8bacfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 2,494$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.34 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 60c | 911$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed New York Mets | 60c | 906.2$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.72 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Mets | 57c | 678.26$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.52 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 60c | 496.22$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed New York Mets | 60c | 226.7$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.02 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 188.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.82 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed New York Mets | 60c | 163$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 132.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed New York Mets | 51c | 127.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 114.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 54c | 113.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets | 56c | 97.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 55.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 49.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 41.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed New York Mets | 49c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 54c | 28.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 27.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…5651backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed New York Mets | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.