TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Tundra Esports, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$143,860

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,860 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c29…afadbacked Tundra Esports55c15,403$8,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,422.96150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere46c13,542$6,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,292.2832854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere40c9,541$3,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,722.2496557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere39c7,654$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,654.3653451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Natus Vincere37c7,633$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,833.4654556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Tundra Esports58c7,449$4,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,31015946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Tundra Esports69c4,591$3,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,161.498060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf12a…f637backed Tundra Esports62c4,499$2,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,804.232445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Natus Vincere43c4,241$1,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,428.086043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Tundra Esports40c3,662$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.3520159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports59c2,871$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.312,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere35c2,202$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.0989440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports56c2,078$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.391,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Tundra Esports61c1,773$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.5822643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Tundra Esports64c1,722$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.083336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Tundra Esports49c1,672$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.791,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Tundra Esports48c1,508$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.82,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f72…adc6backed Natus Vincere50c1,377$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.523066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Tundra Esports55c1,187$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.1110141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Tundra Esports1c1,184$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1062650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Tundra Esports55c1,174$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.779959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Natus Vincere48c1,141$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.2860646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Tundra Esports65c1,110$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.423050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Natus Vincere51c1,088$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.1133041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Natus Vincere49c1,029$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.5348539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Natus Vincere68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3207950.6%40 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Natus Vincere33c999.98$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.9956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed Natus Vincere39c875.16$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.526145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fdd…d385backed Tundra Esports65c868$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.22864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+60.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc5…d1a4backed Natus Vincere35c843.81$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.949045.6%41 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Natus Vincere61c796.72$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.426550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Natus Vincere63c741.19$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.1955457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Tundra Esports65c705.99$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.739145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Tundra Esports51c685.18$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.357231.9%23 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere55c614.59$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.591,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Tundra Esports60c603.63$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.281,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Natus Vincere36c599.98$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.996735.8%24 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Tundra Esports37c590$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.859430.9%29 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Natus Vincere45c555.97$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.9738653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere37c551.52$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.4977458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked Natus Vincere34c506.94$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.089257.6%53 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Natus Vincere47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26553652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03a2…7e3ebacked Tundra Esports65c470$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.512248.4%59 W · 63 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Natus Vincere58c469.09$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.2214657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5554…98f9backed Tundra Esports65c464.62$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3026066.7%40 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Tundra Esports67c444.85$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.0519552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Natus Vincere45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.4446049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere40c434.97$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.9992056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Natus Vincere36c416.67$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.6726453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f9c…101cbacked Tundra Esports68c404.27$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.328458.3%49 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Tundra Esports69c400$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.9542145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Tundra Esports64c382.56$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.8422954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked Natus Vincere59c339.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.3719443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports52c318.96$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8655157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Tundra Esports48c304.53$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1739660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Tundra Esports45c300$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.81,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Natus Vincere37c299.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18917146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Tundra Esports62c295.41$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.7831245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53f0…fff4backed Tundra Esports67c272.96$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.554772.3%34 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Tundra Esports52c270.67$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14086451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Tundra Esports64c264.9$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.513455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere48c248.96$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.361,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked Natus Vincere68c236.01$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.419440.4%38 W · 56 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4cb…63bebacked Natus Vincere45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2212455.6%69 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0030…04e9backed Tundra Esports22c219.64$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4834152.2%178 W · 163 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere62c218.61$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d33…7287backed Tundra Esports46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Tundra Esports61c208.68$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2134154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere34c196$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3655751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66ed…d321backed Tundra Esports42c176.78$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9134045.9%156 W · 184 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Natus Vincere50c167.8$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1912252.5%64 W · 58 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Natus Vincere40c162.44$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9557654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18ea…ae46backed Tundra Esports65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005771.9%41 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Tundra Esports65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Tundra Esports62c152.56$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9548352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02e4…f0aebacked Tundra Esports65c150$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.292070%14 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed Natus Vincere34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0624045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Natus Vincere34c144.4$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.516440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f07…c74fbacked Tundra Esports61c140$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Natus Vincere36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8972154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed Natus Vincere36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8911757.3%67 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Natus Vincere54c136.4$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8429245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Natus Vincere52c135.55$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.419350.5%47 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Natus Vincere38c133.68$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8845046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb16…72bfbacked Natus Vincere79c126.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf456…3855backed Tundra Esports12c120.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517337.6%65 W · 108 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc2…48a9backed Tundra Esports55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b9…c0a9backed Tundra Esports64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Tundra Esports65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6545052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Natus Vincere31c99.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9980742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde2a…6bfebacked Tundra Esports12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212832%41 W · 87 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Tundra Esports31c99.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.263032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Tundra Esports59c99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4136051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Tundra Esports63c95.04$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8741655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…a4c6backed Tundra Esports54c93.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508161.7%50 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Tundra Esports31c89.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3978516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Tundra Esports29c84.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6822456.3%126 W · 98 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdcb…b106backed Tundra Esports64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Tundra Esports65c77.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1499844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf10…ab22backed Tundra Esports46c76.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.