TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,469

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,469 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere33c15,690$5,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,183.522,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Tundra Esports66c14,358$9,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,881.6542650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Tundra Esports63c11,294$7,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,179.2320159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Tundra Esports66c11,000$7,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,745.8710445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere41c10,499$4,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30653451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports57c9,896$5,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,249.2655157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere37c7,911$2,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,927.1132854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked Tundra Esports55c6,784$3,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.286150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Natus Vincere43c6,300$2,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,720.721264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Natus Vincere38c5,716$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed Natus Vincere39c5,451$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,118.066145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere44c5,315$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.6696357.3%552 W · 411 L+48.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Natus Vincere6c5,228$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.3471454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere36c3,905$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.881,17943.1%508 W · 671 L+41.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf12a…f637backed Tundra Esports62c3,745$2,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.262445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Natus Vincere21c3,222$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.7141042.4%174 W · 236 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Tundra Esports65c3,165$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.968060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Natus Vincere39c2,671$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.2733041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed Natus Vincere47c2,500$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.932751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Natus Vincere35c2,233$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.086043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Natus Vincere46c1,629$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75041655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.9958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Natus Vincere38c1,367$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52317546.9%82 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Tundra Esports57c1,351$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.9439660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Tundra Esports79c1,266$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.8233645.5%153 W · 183 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere39c1,110$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.7366662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Natus Vincere38c1,053$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Natus Vincere46c1,049$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.5160646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Tundra Esports79c1,040$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.7718661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Natus Vincere34c955.88$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32548539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Tundra Esports56c893.18$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.1815946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere33c883.28$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.031,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Natus Vincere40c842$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.834044.4%151 W · 189 L+0.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Tundra Esports60c811.06$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.0610141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Natus Vincere45c799.99$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.9953652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d33…7287backed Tundra Esports74c797.71$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.54746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed Natus Vincere40c753.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Tundra Esports62c744.48$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.5213455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x649d…ec03backed Natus Vincere46c742.35$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.83941%16 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Natus Vincere44c700$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30931245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere34c681$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.5485851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Tundra Esports64c620$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22223050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports61c597.15$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.31,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Tundra Esports79c570.37$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3146049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Natus Vincere48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Natus Vincere36c499.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1807835.9%28 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Tundra Esports79c462$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.029145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Natus Vincere48c400$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.0826351%134 W · 129 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18091756.5%518 W · 399 L+79.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaba0…62aabacked Tundra Esports62c400$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1521457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1854…be98backed Natus Vincere37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1481850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Tundra Esports67c399.99$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1326735.8%24 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere29c390.97$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.912,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Natus Vincere33c380.8$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.317231.9%23 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Tundra Esports68c378.18$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.8688166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc03e…da65backed Tundra Esports64c367.09$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.156650%33 W · 33 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3952…c2b4backed Natus Vincere37c351$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.872157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb36…113fbacked Tundra Esports62c351$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.381442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0a…b543backed Tundra Esports62c350$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1331258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x227f…405dbacked Natus Vincere37c350$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.51442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Tundra Esports63c336.83$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.6338653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked Tundra Esports59c320.66$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.6612348%59 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Natus Vincere48c306.25$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14745046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03a2…7e3ebacked Tundra Esports67c306.22$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0512248.4%59 W · 63 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5554…98f9backed Tundra Esports68c302.31$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.746066.7%40 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Tundra Esports62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Tundra Esports67c298.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4619552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Natus Vincere36c295.44$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6534154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Natus Vincere47c290$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4160251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbffe…5664backed Natus Vincere36c278.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Tundra Esports66c270.94$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1229548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Tundra Esports79c251.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8835370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Tundra Esports75c244.48$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5255457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8737…72babacked Natus Vincere48c230.94$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.745550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Natus Vincere40c214$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.612454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0d4…0289backed Natus Vincere49c213.79$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045354.7%29 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4cb…63bebacked Tundra Esports63c207.93$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9312455.6%69 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Natus Vincere34c205.68$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0113733.6%46 W · 91 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9077258.5%452 W · 320 L+74.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x95d6…9aeabacked Tundra Esports53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.512132.2%39 W · 82 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Tundra Esports79c189.87$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8714657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Tundra Esports50c189.49$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7552243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere33c179.04$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.362,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Tundra Esports67c171.44$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9146649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Tundra Esports64c156.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.752649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Tundra Esports64c156.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4786451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Tundra Esports63c153.45$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.788432.1%27 W · 57 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Tundra Esports67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.542145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Tundra Esports64c150$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.545052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf564…1b4cbacked Tundra Esports67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Tundra Esports61c144.01$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.131,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Tundra Esports60c140.04$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9216550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere35c140$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Tundra Esports67c136.57$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0746354.6%253 W · 210 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4814…9a18backed Natus Vincere47c129.37$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x461f…8719backed Tundra Esports78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.219749.5%48 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f07…c74fbacked Tundra Esports63c115$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.554037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Natus Vincere48c112.84$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.990753.7%487 W · 420 L+50.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere17c109.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4474549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Tundra Esports66c108.74$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.555552.7%29 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.