Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ffb1e94f5d400bac8c53b4cedbfc287eb8dd84dd291c64c00b9618bd3ab9ea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,469 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 15,690$5,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,183.52 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 14,358$9,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,881.65 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Tundra Esports | 63c | 11,294$7,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,179.23 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 11,000$7,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,745.87 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 10,499$4,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,306 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 9,896$5,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,249.26 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 7,911$2,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.11 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…afadbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 6,784$3,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,059.28 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 6,300$2,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720.7 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 5,716$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…3f70backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 5,451$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.06 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 5,315$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.66 | 963 | 57.3%552 W · 411 L | +48.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Natus Vincere | 6c | 5,228$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.34 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 3,905$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.88 | 1,179 | 43.1%508 W · 671 L | +41.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12a…f637backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 3,745$2,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.26 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked Natus Vincere | 21c | 3,222$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.71 | 410 | 42.4%174 W · 236 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c29…21aabacked Tundra Esports | 65c | 3,165$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.96 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 2,671$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.27 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…73d6backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.93 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…de0fbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 2,233$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.08 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 1,629$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.99 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 1,367$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 1,351$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.94 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Tundra Esports | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 1,110$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.73 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 1,053$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 1,049$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.51 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Tundra Esports | 79c | 1,040$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.77 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 955.88$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 893.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.18 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 883.28$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.03 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 842$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.8 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 811.06$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.06 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 799.99$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.99 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d33…7287backed Tundra Esports | 74c | 797.71$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…c3a9backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 753.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 744.48$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.52 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…ec03backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 742.35$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.8 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 700$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 681$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.54 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 620$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports | 61c | 597.15$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.3 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Tundra Esports | 79c | 570.37$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.31 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 499.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Tundra Esports | 79c | 462$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 400$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.08 | 263 | 51%134 W · 129 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 917 | 56.5%518 W · 399 L | +79.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…62aabacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…be98backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…19c0backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 399.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 390.97$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.91 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 380.8$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.31 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Tundra Esports | 68c | 378.18$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.86 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…da65backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 367.09$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.15 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3952…c2b4backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 351$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb36…113fbacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 351$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…b543backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 350$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…405dbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 350$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Tundra Esports | 63c | 336.83$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…54cebacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 320.66$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.66 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 306.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Tundra Esports | 67c | 306.22$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…98f9backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 302.31$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 1,247 | 44.4%554 W · 693 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 298.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.46 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 295.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 290$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.41 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…5664backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 278.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 270.94$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Tundra Esports | 79c | 251.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Tundra Esports | 75c | 244.48$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…72babacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 230.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 214$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 213.79$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…63bebacked Tundra Esports | 63c | 207.93$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 124 | 55.6%69 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 205.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 772 | 58.5%452 W · 320 L | +74.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…9aeabacked Tundra Esports | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…971abacked Tundra Esports | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Tundra Esports | 50c | 189.49$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.75 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 179.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 171.44$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Tundra Esports | 64c | 156.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 156.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Tundra Esports | 63c | 153.45$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Tundra Esports | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Tundra Esports | 64c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf564…1b4cbacked Tundra Esports | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 144.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 140.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 136.57$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4814…9a18backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 129.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x461f…8719backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…c74fbacked Tundra Esports | 63c | 115$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 112.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 907 | 53.7%487 W · 420 L | +50.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere | 17c | 109.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 108.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill?No won
- Game 1: Ends in Daytime?Yes won
- Game 2: Ends in Daytime?Yes won
- Game 3: Ends in Daytime?Yes won
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.