Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x132a63dcd8e96ae14b353ca23d4fad5f5168541546d495a542038e5e3f5f9403
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 4,378$2,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,232.67 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Over | 49c | 3,300$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 51c | 609.38$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.43 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc918…7411backed Over | 49c | 396.08$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 52c | 373.5$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.75 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 50c | 364.33$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.37 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…ecf8backed Over | 50c | 300.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.14 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 50c | 292.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.49 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7093…a798backed Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 45c | 261.47$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 50c | 240.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 52c | 216.57$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Under | 15c | 209.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 50c | 200.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 49c | 194.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Over | 49c | 178.05$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3465…bbdbbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 49c | 97.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…fb31backed Over | 50c | 96.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Over | 48c | 95.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Over | 49c | 85.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…9819backed Under | 50c | 79.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 59c | 72.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6c…61dbbacked Under | 52c | 70.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 61c | 64.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…de69backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Under | 50c | 59.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 50c | 58.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Over | 61c | 43.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Under | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…92cbbacked Under | 64c | 35.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Under | 60c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 53c | 33.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e5…8e79backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…c2bebacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…b241backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 57c | 25.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Over | 49c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec2…1c42backed Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…fb3dbacked Under | 52c | 21.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International PlayoffsBoomBoys won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys - Game 1 WinnerBoomBoys won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)Nigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.