Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x134485ea642b82371d8b160f9461fb47d56911d418a3cecb10f7ed2f5ddbea30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Medvedev, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,817 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76b9…12e4backed Michelsen | 48c | 5,727$2,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,748.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…892ebacked Medvedev | 52c | 4,899$2,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,351.74 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee9f…b134backed Michelsen | 48c | 4,543$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5083…9cbdbacked Medvedev | 52c | 3,763$1,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.3 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Medvedev | 53c | 2,813$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.09 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Michelsen | 47c | 2,664$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.85 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…7961backed Michelsen | 48c | 2,105$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8f…2999backed Medvedev | 52c | 1,963$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…f99ebacked Medvedev | 52c | 1,748$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Michelsen | 47c | 1,665$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.81 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Medvedev | 52c | 1,443$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.74 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michelsen | 35c | 903.86$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.84 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michelsen | 47c | 821.94$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.68 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…3c51backed Medvedev | 53c | 682.39$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.87 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…f57fbacked Medvedev | 65c | 612.28$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Medvedev | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Michelsen | 46c | 560.79$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.38 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Michelsen | 49c | 455.66$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.33 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Medvedev | 52c | 340.42$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…39b1backed Medvedev | 66c | 274.68$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Medvedev | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Michelsen | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae5…f4cabacked Michelsen | 35c | 198.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Medvedev | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Michelsen | 37c | 125.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…923bbacked Michelsen | 15c | 108.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +271.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Medvedev | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Michelsen | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Medvedev | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Michelsen | 46c | 93.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 131 | 35.9%47 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…aa8dbacked Medvedev | 52c | 93.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Michelsen | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Michelsen | 15c | 81.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Michelsen | 28c | 81.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Medvedev | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Medvedev | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Medvedev | 75c | 66.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Michelsen | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b91…ac5cbacked Medvedev | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Michelsen | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Medvedev | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed Medvedev | 53c | 55.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 255 | 44.3%113 W · 142 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Michelsen | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ba…5afbbacked Medvedev | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Medvedev | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…987abacked Michelsen | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Michelsen | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Medvedev | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1619…ca7bbacked Medvedev | 52c | 39.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Michelsen | 49c | 29.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Michelsen | 47c | 25.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Michelsen | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Michelsen | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…d7f4backed Medvedev | 52c | 21.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Michelsen | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…11ffbacked Michelsen | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alex MichelsenDaniil Medvedev won
- Medvedev vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs MichelsenMedvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.