NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x136fb64ba6df5b01d54755dc64711bdc7ed644bc4b43a1be22c867574bace314
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Trail Blazers, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 51c | 8,033$4,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,944.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Mavericks | 47c | 7,994$3,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,237.01 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 6,662$3,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,197.76 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Mavericks | 48c | 2,999$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.05 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 48c | 1,967$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 50c | 1,648$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.39 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8265…e0eebacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 1,507$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 1,207$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.54 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mavericks | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.92 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222e…0d53backed Mavericks | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 966.48$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.3 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Mavericks | 50c | 922$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Mavericks | 51c | 864$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.36 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Mavericks | 52c | 600$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.86 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 470.59$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks | 51c | 434$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.62 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 426.92$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 380$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 331$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.43 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Mavericks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 47c | 187.67$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8657…5741backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 166.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 252 | 43.7%110 W · 142 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Mavericks | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Mavericks | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9d…4ad7backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 50c | 76.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516a…a2edbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…f49cbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…48aebacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d7…0b48backed Mavericks | 51c | 37.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e19…e721backed Mavericks | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7d…fccebacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Mavericks | 48c | 21.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Trail Blazers vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.