NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb57af8259c125c76c934d032ce2716a9c8230e813a04b0dd96ee2137e4558664
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Trail Blazers, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.99 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 9,300$4,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,274.41 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 54c | 8,808$4,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,063.51 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3db…0b3cbacked Mavericks | 52c | 7,000$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…860cbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 3,300$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…0706backed Mavericks | 53c | 3,300$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Mavericks | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.99 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 982.8$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.26 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 53c | 720.51$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Mavericks | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 322.25$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Mavericks | 53c | 263.36$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.51 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 54c | 209.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Mavericks | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Mavericks | 52c | 98.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Mavericks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Mavericks | 52c | 36.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Mavericks | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 28.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Mavericks | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Trail Blazers vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.