NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d5b545893794b92d9775aee0006024993c499a06560f3b07893950b2d287e85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $513,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $513,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $513,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Under | 37c | 510,709$188,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188,845.07 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Over | 63c | 210,961$132,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,055.57 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Over | 63c | 149,900$94,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,463 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Over | 63c | 100,000$63,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,000 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 63c | 20,000$12,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,400 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 63c | 8,000$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,960 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 63c | 6,000$3,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,220 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…87d5backed Over | 64c | 4,688$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.5 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 64c | 4,000$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Over | 64c | 1,800$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over | 63c | 1,700$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629 | 433 | 48.5%210 W · 223 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked Over | 64c | 1,582$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.62 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 63c | 1,106$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.01 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Over | 55c | 600$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Over | 60c | 479.41$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.41 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 41c | 410$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.1 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 48c | 310$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Over | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 39c | 235.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Over | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 176.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Over | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5e…b6dfbacked Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…fc6cbacked Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 43c | 98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4f…54e2backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…dcf4backed Over | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…1c2dbacked Over | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Trail Blazers vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.