Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13749121e3ed430650ed8a0e25dab3a9da25babe6f174943eed64fcc54f6634c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 68c | 2,599$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.74 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 2,396$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.66 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 2,003$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.59 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 31c | 1,494$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.66 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 63c | 1,103$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.79 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…118fbacked Yes | 52c | 500.03$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 463.35$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.05 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 308.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 78c | 261.86$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.25 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 79c | 224.83$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.95 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 216.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.8 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 79c | 157.93$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.77 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 23c | 139.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 62c | 123.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed No | 49c | 98.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4a…ad4cbacked Yes | 36c | 83.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 79c | 83.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 53c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 22c | 73.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 69c | 71.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa94b…ef59backed Yes | 66c | 59.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 33c | 56.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Yes | 36c | 53.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 61c | 40.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 33c | 37.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…0801backed Yes | 63c | 33.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Yes | 31c | 32.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 32c | 32.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e9…41f3backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 60c | 23.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…ee14backed No | 47c | 23.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 61c | 17.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 79c | 15.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-08-08?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-08-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.