Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 153.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13751bff0f1063f7e34d7fe076ab16fa0251199268725a6c4f9339992ae9b852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,621 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 51c | 4,529$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219.05 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 3,462$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,834.97 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 49c | 2,896$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.82 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 2,751$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.54 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 49c | 1,069$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.63 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 46c | 924.58$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.54 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 53c | 561.07$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.36 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 42c | 453.9$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.64 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Over | 53c | 444$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.32 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | +14.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 363.77$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.41 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed Over | 49c | 140.76$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked Over | 50c | 117.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…d7c4backed Under | 49c | 100.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 50c | 95.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…3bc3backed Under | 50c | 79.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 77.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 51.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 78c | 44.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 44c | 42.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 131 | 41.2%54 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Over | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Under | 49c | 33.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 52c | 28.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 174 | 46.6%81 W · 93 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…71a0backed Over | 52c | 28.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked Over | 52c | 27.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82d7…9900backed Over | 52c | 23.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 153.5this page
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-11.5)Arizona Wildcats won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-12.5)Utah State Aggies won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-13.5)Utah State Aggies won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona WildcatsArizona Wildcats won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 136.5Over won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 141.5Over won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 144.5Under won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 152.5Under won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 154.5Under won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 155.5Under won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 156.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.