TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 155.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,465 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b47…d615backed Under53c7,304$3,871 inWon+$3,432.9574051.5%381 W · 359 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over46c4,343$2,007 inLost-$2,007.232,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c3,015$1,419 inLost-$1,418.5612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Under56c1,140$638 inWon+$501.6423754.9%130 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a96…0d7cbacked Over48c759.78$365 inLost-$365.275149%25 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over46c743.48$342 inLost-$34222349.3%110 W · 113 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under52c497.09$258 inWon+$238.61,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under49c239.22$117 inWon+$1225,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Over51c233.24$119 inLost-$118.953953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed Over7c210.08$15 inLost-$14.719552.6%50 W · 45 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Under53c174.41$92 inWon+$81.9731448.7%153 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6586…c69cbacked Under51c155.56$79 inWon+$76.23966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over47c145.98$69 inLost-$68.6162451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Under52c98.14$51 inWon+$47.130152.8%159 W · 142 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Over52c61.21$32 inLost-$31.831,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over47c53.84$25 inLost-$25.329650.7%150 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03a…d7c4backed Over47c50.07$24 inLost-$23.534562.2%28 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03eb…47b0backed Over48c44.57$21 inLost-$21.287160.6%43 W · 28 L+8.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3437…1e5ebacked Under48c41.3$20 inWon+$21.489952.5%52 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over47c34.73$16 inLost-$16.3333058.2%192 W · 138 L+24.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Under54c30.29$16 inWon+$13.937553.3%40 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d27…676ebacked Over47c29.95$14 inLost-$13.989441.5%39 W · 55 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under51c23.24$12 inWon+$11.3922047.7%105 W · 115 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under53c20$11 inWon+$9.457655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.