MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x137d3e8abce598b40c813b39167d3a0cc87e0f84cb0f8ec6f18bf90867623ab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 30,758$15,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,083.02 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 23,284$10,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,672.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 9,516$4,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,624.83 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 4,941$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 4,109$2,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.54 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 56c | 2,979$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.63 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 2,661$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.54 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 2,293$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.88 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 56c | 1,739$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.66 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 34c | 1,036$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.26 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 59c | 998.2$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.94 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 40c | 928.48$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.09 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 60c | 908$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.8 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 59c | 652.2$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 63c | 610.45$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.8 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 48c | 550.52$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.09 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 67c | 455.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.29 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 239.87$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Over | 32c | 216$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 41c | 212$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 59c | 199.5$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 65c | 153.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 65c | 153.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 41c | 152.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 61c | 139.34$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 114$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 68c | 110.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…d6e9backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 50c | 104.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 71c | 96.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Under | 54c | 94.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09c6…291ebacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Over | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 61c | 82.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…614dbacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 68c | 81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Under | 69c | 76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…e587backed Under | 41c | 71.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 52c | 62.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Over | 45c | 35.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 62c | 33.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 55c | 30.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 73c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 47c | 24.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Under | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e9…aa24backed Over | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 52c | 20.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-5.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.