MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec615e0cbd614a813d2b3fce443028e01cd7ab85493ff93349771de93626f5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 49c | 32,199$15,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,421.58 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…82c6backed Over | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,590 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 8,284$3,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,623.58 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 57c | 7,653$4,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,286.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 46c | 4,990$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,691.05 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 49c | 3,500$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.99 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 47c | 2,984$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.52 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 2,959$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over | 54c | 2,092$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.77 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 2,007$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 51c | 1,886$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.99 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 1,349$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 1,015$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…6465backed Under | 49c | 786.08$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.9 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 48c | 728.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.07 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 60c | 669.2$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 51c | 356$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 58c | 303.05$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 54c | 291.22$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.26 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 291$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 52c | 259$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.68 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 38c | 205.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 49c | 179.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 49c | 152.03$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 48c | 146.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 145.34$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 51c | 145$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 141$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 123.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 52c | 108.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 52c | 105.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 52c | 98.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Over | 42c | 84.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 58c | 76.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 48c | 72.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 49c | 71.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 52c | 71.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Over | 45c | 68.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 51c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 61.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 59.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 42c | 43.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Under | 57c | 40.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 41c | 38.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb59…6552backed Over | 53c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Over | 56c | 36.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Under | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Under | 60c | 30.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Under | 48c | 24.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 47c | 24.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Under | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Over | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 50c | 20.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 52c | 20.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Under | 54c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Over | 51c | 19.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-5.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.