Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x138599141384edc4182dbe12ce788302d7d02b3820b45126c2737de55e4befbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2bc5…1e15backed Yes | 34c | 2,070$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 66c | 1,935$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.62 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Yes | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Yes | 35c | 1,203$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.95 | 617 | 50.6%312 W · 305 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 68c | 828.92$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.8 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 799.98$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.99 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 33c | 757$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.81 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 68c | 690.59$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.39 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 69c | 560.89$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 70c | 556.61$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.22 | 355 | 49.9%177 W · 178 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 4c | 533.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 67c | 399.99$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…f01ebacked No | 67c | 395.16$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.91 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 32c | 311$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 387 | 34.4%133 W · 254 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…ab45backed Yes | 32c | 308.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 242.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Yes | 34c | 240$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 33c | 219.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 66c | 212.84$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 71c | 152.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 66c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 15c | 136.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1,563 | 39.8%622 W · 941 L | -51.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…f35abacked Yes | 17c | 127.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 401 | 45.4%182 W · 219 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed No | 67c | 86.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 66c | 80.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 32c | 62.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 514 | 29.4%151 W · 363 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed No | 69c | 56.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 847 | 51%432 W · 415 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 548 | 59.5%326 W · 222 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc4…9782backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 34c | 32.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 370 | 57.3%212 W · 158 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 397 | 46.3%184 W · 213 L | -28.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 67c | 23.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed No | 69c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 138 | 65.2%90 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 62c | 21.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 67c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 235 | 52.8%124 W · 111 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 77c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 390 | 39%152 W · 238 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw?this page
- Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06?Yes won
- Will Malawi win on 2026-06-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.