Asian League · resolved market
FC Seoul vs. Ulsan HD FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1397e5c30a5a5889cb1f15ae6268a17f9c966dc6df19c30711d2f5cbe39a9406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 4,646$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.67 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 27c | 3,426$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.32 | 2,397 | 37.8%905 W · 1,492 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 24c | 1,814$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.16 | 825 | 42.4%350 W · 475 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 17c | 1,672$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.06 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 17c | 1,242$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.15 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…c873backed Under | 63c | 1,105$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 15c | 1,016$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.36 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 34c | 753$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.08 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 3c | 640.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 14c | 590.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…7a71backed Under | 77c | 518.75$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Over | 15c | 476.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 143 | 10.5%15 W · 128 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Over | 18c | 450$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 118 | 12.7%15 W · 103 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 67c | 300.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 18c | 266.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 71c | 241.6$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 708 | 42.5%301 W · 407 L | -26.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 51c | 236.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 6c | 230.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 922 | 35.1%324 W · 598 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 58c | 222.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Over | 50c | 209.07$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 49c | 198.41$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.19 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…6674backed Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 18c | 134.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 236 | 60.2%142 W · 94 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 50c | 130.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 1,053 | 41.9%441 W · 612 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Over | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 63c | 86.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 582 | 43%250 W · 332 L | -26.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 15c | 86.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…696cbacked Over | 51c | 81.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 25c | 79.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 720 | 44.2%318 W · 402 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 23c | 72.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…e401backed Over | 16c | 62.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Under | 59c | 25.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9895backed Under | 73c | 21.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 71c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,022 | 41.5%424 W · 598 L | -33.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Seoul vs. Ulsan HD FC: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Seoul vs. Ulsan HD FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Seoul vs. Ulsan HD FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Seoul vs. Ulsan HD FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Seoul vs. Ulsan HD FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Seoul vs. Ulsan HD FC: FC Seoul O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Seoul vs. Ulsan HD FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Seoul vs. Ulsan HD FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Seoul vs. Ulsan HD FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Seoul vs. Ulsan HD FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Seoul (-1.5)Ulsan HD FC won
- Spread: FC Seoul (-2.5)Ulsan HD FC won
- Spread: Ulsan HD FC (-1.5)Ulsan HD FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.