Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13b03847bb740feeffec8a33e24a71923f205923f2079919dc57959131f52724
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Over | 5c | 1,834$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 7c | 1,447$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 7c | 904.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 73c | 665.74$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.88 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 75c | 574.24$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.91 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 521.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 12c | 518.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 124 | 22.6%28 W · 96 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…d383backed Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Over | 12c | 260$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +68%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Over | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Over | 18c | 205.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 23c | 182.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…3d15backed Over | 22c | 165$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4674backed Over | 11c | 139.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 8c | 131.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Under | 79c | 126.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 10c | 118.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Over | 10c | 117.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Over | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Over | 30c | 93.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 77c | 80.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 74c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6506…a04bbacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…5f03backed Under | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 73c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.