Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on October 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13d4585289b39659d9d00ee7e191dfc62387d99497fabd85bd97cdefded21b99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7bd…2a37backed Yes | 42c | 15,800$6,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,636 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e2…c950backed No | 58c | 15,800$9,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,636 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 3,139$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.63 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,061$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 513.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 6c | 481.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…5b69backed Yes | 35c | 455$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 34c | 389.46$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 64c | 311.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…bf8abacked Yes | 28c | 304.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked No | 68c | 212.52$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 53c | 202.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 32c | 180$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b66…da4bbacked Yes | 32c | 173.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 30c | 154.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed Yes | 54c | 153.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 151.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e0…8755backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 51c | 141.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 141.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 70c | 126.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed Yes | 38c | 106.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6263…6930backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cb…2752backed No | 59c | 96.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 90.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 23c | 55.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 25c | 46.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…9569backed Yes | 52c | 38.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39b…897dbacked Yes | 66c | 33.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed Yes | 42c | 28.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…cd20backed No | 79c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on October 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on October 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on October 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on October 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on October 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on October 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on October 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.