Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on October 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4ad12a46d73988c1ab3fe7fc9f71857736aa34e24c21a52132b022809e0fa3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 1c | 1,187$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 2c | 723.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 53c | 667.72$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.48 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390b…4354backed Yes | 48c | 289.7$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…eed1backed No | 80c | 248.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed No | 50c | 183$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 38c | 154.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 10c | 153$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…608bbacked Yes | 68c | 146.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed Yes | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdce8…b298backed Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 85.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 73.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 63c | 55.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 67c | 47.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…9e9abacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 44c | 42.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…bf8abacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 67c | 29.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on October 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on October 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on October 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on October 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on October 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on October 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on October 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.