Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zhizhen Zhang
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13f010874c19e51de714ee219be2ce1b3e8c694ea273e8dde00a0d64348c8457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Zhang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Zhang | 13c | 8,722$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Zhang | 0c | 3,950$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Cerundolo | 68c | 3,570$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.4 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Zhang | 10c | 2,448$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.54 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Zhang | 32c | 2,267$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.46 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Zhang | 32c | 2,152$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.64 | 313 | 32.3%101 W · 212 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Cerundolo | 68c | 2,044$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.12 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Zhang | 32c | 1,980$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.08 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Zhang | 5c | 1,622$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Zhang | 32c | 1,572$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.42 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…432cbacked Cerundolo | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Cerundolo | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Zhang | 30c | 1,250$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.09 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cerundolo | 68c | 1,042$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.06 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Zhang | 5c | 899.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…097ebacked Zhang | 23c | 870$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…398fbacked Cerundolo | 69c | 609.54$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.96 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…aff2backed Cerundolo | 69c | 566.83$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.83 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Zhang | 33c | 296$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…9d01backed Cerundolo | 69c | 289.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Cerundolo | 77c | 218.86$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Zhang | 15c | 204.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Zhang | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Zhang | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cerundolo | 67c | 189.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Zhang | 20c | 185.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Zhang | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Cerundolo | 71c | 133.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Zhang | 14c | 123$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…c79bbacked Cerundolo | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Zhang | 33c | 107.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Cerundolo | 69c | 106$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…2618backed Zhang | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Zhang | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cerundolo | 78c | 77.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…8b61backed Zhang | 14c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Cerundolo | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Cerundolo | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…494bbacked Cerundolo | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Zhang | 20c | 71.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…8bc6backed Zhang | 19c | 70.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Zhang | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…f935backed Cerundolo | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65b…64c9backed Cerundolo | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked Zhang | 32c | 32.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Cerundolo | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…9ab3backed Cerundolo | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38eb…5257backed Cerundolo | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cerundolo | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zhizhen Zhangthis page
- Cerundolo vs. Zhang: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-2.5) vs Zhang (+2.5)Cerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.