MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x140b0cf640b8e76a57978fc954a805fcac88841262444b66347bf8c23631cb9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 14,460$5,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,427.6 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 68c | 11,639$7,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,859.88 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 4,564$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670.69 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 67c | 4,043$2,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,710.03 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 67c | 3,658$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,456.06 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago White Sox | 27c | 1,894$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.31 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Yankees | 56c | 1,831$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.46 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 33c | 1,718$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.15 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 1,209$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.58 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…1840backed New York Yankees | 72c | 1,115$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Yankees | 67c | 700$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Yankees | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 63c | 443$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.19 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Chicago White Sox | 34c | 425.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.23 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5b67backed New York Yankees | 43c | 310$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago White Sox | 31c | 285.29$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.87 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 30c | 196.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.43 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed New York Yankees | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked New York Yankees | 56c | 135.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Chicago White Sox | 15c | 105.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Chicago White Sox | 17c | 96.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 65c | 81.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 79.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked New York Yankees | 68c | 77.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked New York Yankees | 52c | 74.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 53.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed New York Yankees | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed New York Yankees | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Yankees | 63c | 45.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees | 31c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Chicago White Sox | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Chicago White Sox | 42c | 34.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed New York Yankees | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…406bbacked Chicago White Sox | 39c | 29.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed New York Yankees | 73c | 26.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed New York Yankees | 64c | 25.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed New York Yankees | 63c | 24.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.