MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5489c5769fc71d3abdd59e4dc318be2887d0eb94aae2ac13154d6de726d51aed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 21,604$10,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,450.26 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf958…db13backed Over | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,600 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 52c | 18,494$9,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,616.92 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 48c | 17,168$8,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,927.36 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 35c | 10,507$3,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,687.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 64c | 9,736$6,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,489.15 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 52c | 5,400$2,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,822 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 1,385$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 56c | 1,130$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.64 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f5…24adbacked Over | 43c | 1,098$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.88 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 567.62$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 52c | 449.31$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.92 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 47c | 426.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.67 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 39c | 381.56$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.81 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 76c | 351.88$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 250.01$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 247.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.73 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 47c | 223$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Under | 48c | 156.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.22 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 46c | 119.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Under | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 59c | 84.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 37c | 74.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…f3d4backed Over | 56c | 51.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 77c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 63c | 41.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 52c | 37.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 53c | 36.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 45c | 33.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 58c | 32.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 53c | 21.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 20.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.