Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1411897bd48bb18ee403bcba34cae585671456ab8500e609d63c737a391d5cff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 44c | 681.24$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.63 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 3c | 474.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 32c | 389.51$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.26 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 35c | 287.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 25c | 199.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.19 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 185.81$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 153.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 60c | 150.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 149.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 139.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 128.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 25c | 127.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 127$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 58c | 91.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 91.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 81.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 32c | 74.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 72.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 72.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 65c | 56.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 76c | 47.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 24c | 44.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 53c | 43.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…b527backed Yes | 27c | 43.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 69c | 41.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 74c | 40.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 67c | 39.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 49c | 38.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 45c | 36.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked No | 63c | 36.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 74c | 23.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 22.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 63c | 20.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.