Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1412c13b1c7c4ec553ee484907227fddb05b6532715ae017422de3c8992f1608
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cirsteaof Cirstea, Sierra
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Cirstea | 54c | 8,373$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,872.99 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sierra | 46c | 6,926$3,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,186.14 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Sierra | 49c | 2,303$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.67 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Sierra | 48c | 1,741$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.86 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Cirstea | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Cirstea | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sierra | 46c | 380$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Cirstea | 51c | 202.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.46 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…b91dbacked Cirstea | 53c | 134.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Sierra | 47c | 134.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…a9d1backed Cirstea | 51c | 100.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 259 | 48.6%126 W · 133 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Sierra | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Sierra | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Sierra | 46c | 93.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed Cirstea | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Cirstea | 51c | 46.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Cirstea | 52c | 46.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…b5a8backed Cirstea | 51c | 40.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Sierra | 47c | 33.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…551abacked Cirstea | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…eab0backed Cirstea | 53c | 23.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5)this page
- Roland Garros WTA: Solana Sierra vs Sorana CirsteaSorana Cirstea won
- Sierra vs. Cirstea: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.