MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14255aa84cad088b9aa55d9a2d73fd79765aaa703f6b936fc04ae93ba7bd691e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Under | 64c | 7,300$4,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,644.95 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.1 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 33c | 2,389$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 56c | 2,385$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.6 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 65c | 768.73$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 671.09$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 56c | 445$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 32c | 371.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 55c | 336.46$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.91 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 20c | 275.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 14c | 249$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 40c | 216.69$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 32c | 185.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 56c | 176$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 13c | 167.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 18c | 154.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 39c | 122.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 69c | 117.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 56c | 112$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked Over | 42c | 103.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 56c | 80.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 34c | 73.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 40c | 70.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 35c | 70.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 35c | 70.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 35c | 70.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 35c | 70.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Over | 35c | 70.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 78c | 69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 56c | 58.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 56c | 31.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 45c | 28.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 76c | 24.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…deaebacked Under | 56c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 63c | 16.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.