MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8107f80efabade99c3728efbc395729993fe11da00c1ccde8614de9030e1ab9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Washington Nationals, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 2,255$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.8 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 2,255$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.69 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 1,226$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.3 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 970.75$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 955.68$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.32 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 802.72$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 457.4$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 455.28$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 442.86$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.86 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 242.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 233.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 222.32$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 35c | 221.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 221.52$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.28 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 121.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 115.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 110.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 20c | 86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 74.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…e03fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 80c | 58.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 54.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 41.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Washington Nationals | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 28.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…342ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.