MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8af3403ccaf93f736bc08248f9e14478df60cc77a6e4f3fd7a50933f4669e762
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Tampa Bay Rays, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 10,000$5,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,958.65 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 5,634$2,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 5,351$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 2,944$1,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.17 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 2,485$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 2,200$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 1,974$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.07 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 1,519$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.88 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 1,440$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.36 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 927.28$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 585.94$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.94 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 437.53$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 420$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 250.15$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 230.68$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 224.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 213.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 195$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 68c | 156$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 113.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 92.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…a68cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 51.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 47.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 41.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 35.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 29.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…b1c7backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 28.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…342ebacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 25.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked Washington Nationals | 80c | 19.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 18.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Washington Nationals | 67c | 18.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 17.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…88dfbacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.