Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Tabilo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x142d3a1b3e97858d3ce421577654db67fa36067d743c9592c40e371e96a82165
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tabiloof Rublev, Tabilo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd575…e017backed Tabilo | 65c | 3,544$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tabilo | 58c | 3,530$2,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.82 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Rublev | 42c | 3,455$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rublev | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…8950backed Tabilo | 59c | 1,219$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.16 | 394 | 43.1%170 W · 224 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Rublev | 41c | 634.53$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.82 | 2,204 | 36.9%813 W · 1,391 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Rublev | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.05 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Rublev | 44c | 308.76$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 347 | 48.1%167 W · 180 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…19e2backed Rublev | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +11.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Rublev | 25c | 230$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 487 | 38.4%187 W · 300 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…1ffcbacked Rublev | 25c | 214.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Rublev | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rublev | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Rublev | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…f4f1backed Rublev | 59c | 184.39$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tabilo | 57c | 179.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab70…774cbacked Rublev | 61c | 177.11$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Tabilo | 57c | 174.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Rublev | 41c | 155.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 372 | 47.3%176 W · 196 L | -17.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Rublev | 43c | 150.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Rublev | 44c | 141.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…9ffdbacked Rublev | 25c | 140.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…2032backed Rublev | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Tabilo | 56c | 98.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 860 | 50.1%431 W · 429 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…4a90backed Tabilo | 78c | 92.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Tabilo | 60c | 70.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…fcf5backed Rublev | 49c | 68.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Rublev | 28c | 63.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,381 | 16.4%227 W · 1,154 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed Rublev | 25c | 59.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 104 | 25%26 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Tabilo | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…5112backed Rublev | 42c | 47.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Tabilo | 50c | 43.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Tabilo | 56c | 35.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…4968backed Rublev | 66c | 30.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Tabilo | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1,036 | 54.2%562 W · 474 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Tabilo | 60c | 25.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 176 | 46%81 W · 95 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Tabilo | 56c | 20.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 595 | 65.4%389 W · 206 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Tabilo (+1.5)this page
- Andrey Rublev vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Rublev vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Rublev vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs TabiloRublev won
- Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs TabiloTabilo won
- Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro TabiloAndrey Rublev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.