NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Kraken
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x142db25ea35f08b0a8709480697621f611efd06d51ff6d255c3aaf5787b5c421
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Penguins, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Penguins | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Penguins | 48c | 8,154$3,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,896.23 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Kraken | 52c | 7,250$3,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,480 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Penguins | 49c | 5,307$2,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,587.5 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kraken | 51c | 5,277$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,598.26 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Penguins | 11c | 3,106$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.57 | 323 | 31.3%101 W · 222 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…b149backed Kraken | 52c | 1,462$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.54 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Penguins | 50c | 1,314$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Kraken | 52c | 1,300$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.99 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Kraken | 50c | 782$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391 | 298 | 47%140 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Kraken | 50c | 635$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.7 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Penguins | 50c | 519.19$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.23 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Penguins | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…da81backed Penguins | 50c | 495.2$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Penguins | 26c | 489.44$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Penguins | 49c | 447$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.03 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bb…ad38backed Kraken | 55c | 361.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…61b5backed Penguins | 28c | 358.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489a…bcdebacked Kraken | 53c | 232.62$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe00…20c6backed Penguins | 48c | 232.62$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Penguins | 47c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Penguins | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…f1d6backed Kraken | 51c | 189.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Kraken | 76c | 188.49$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Kraken | 52c | 179.07$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Kraken | 77c | 157.95$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Kraken | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbe…ee8dbacked Penguins | 48c | 143.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Penguins | 31c | 130$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Kraken | 75c | 121.11$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2235…d67fbacked Kraken | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…3413backed Penguins | 48c | 103.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Penguins | 44c | 100.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Penguins | 48c | 100.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Penguins | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Penguins | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed Kraken | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed Kraken | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Penguins | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Kraken | 52c | 99.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Penguins | 48c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed Kraken | 52c | 99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Kraken | 78c | 97.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Kraken | 53c | 85.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 249 | 45.8%114 W · 135 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1984…241ebacked Kraken | 51c | 79.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…cecfbacked Kraken | 77c | 78.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Kraken | 50c | 66.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…b387backed Penguins | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…9093backed Penguins | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf734…c613backed Penguins | 50c | 53.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Penguins | 49c | 48.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Kraken | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…8982backed Kraken | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab5…63a1backed Kraken | 74c | 41.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…4831backed Penguins | 46c | 40.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…f3fbbacked Penguins | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb18…198cbacked Kraken | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Penguins | 48c | 37.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0acb…770fbacked Penguins | 48c | 33.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…2feebacked Kraken | 54c | 33.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9085…e753backed Penguins | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Penguins | 49c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 249 | 49.8%124 W · 125 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Penguins | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.