Tennis · resolved market
ITF Caserta: Federica Urgesi vs Alessandra Mazzola
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x143a88537a6c5ba00268325c5131465510d6a32e51f85febb30711b24baa6822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Federica Urgesiof Federica Urgesi, Alessandra Mazzola
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Federica Urgesi | 69c | 1,650$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.91 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…97f6backed Federica Urgesi | 50c | 1,303$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.66 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Alessandra Mazzola | 46c | 1,162$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.03 | 4,992 | 38.6%1,927 W · 3,065 L | -19.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Alessandra Mazzola | 47c | 947.56$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.19 | 6,798 | 36.9%2,507 W · 4,291 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Alessandra Mazzola | 41c | 766.79$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.05 | 7,129 | 39.7%2,832 W · 4,297 L | -14.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Federica Urgesi | 59c | 762.71$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.71 | 1,887 | 45.8%864 W · 1,023 L | +52.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…6f6abacked Alessandra Mazzola | 21c | 634.87$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Alessandra Mazzola | 41c | 457.22$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.46 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Federica Urgesi | 59c | 452.22$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.41 | 3,359 | 48.5%1,630 W · 1,729 L | -49.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Federica Urgesi | 51c | 426.26$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.51 | 2,781 | 53.8%1,495 W · 1,286 L | +71.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Federica Urgesi | 53c | 339.55$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.67 | 1,136 | 50%568 W · 568 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Alessandra Mazzola | 41c | 286.16$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.32 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Federica Urgesi | 71c | 271.06$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 917 | 55.5%509 W · 408 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Alessandra Mazzola | 26c | 259.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 1,140 | 45.4%518 W · 622 L | -34.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Alessandra Mazzola | 38c | 233.24$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Alessandra Mazzola | 52c | 201.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 6,649 | 46.3%3,079 W · 3,570 L | -38.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e3…8c11backed Alessandra Mazzola | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…20e4backed Federica Urgesi | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Alessandra Mazzola | 43c | 191.89$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 586 | 48.5%284 W · 302 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Alessandra Mazzola | 49c | 159$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 5,553 | 48.6%2,700 W · 2,853 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Alessandra Mazzola | 41c | 129.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Federica Urgesi | 60c | 111.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Alessandra Mazzola | 39c | 102.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Federica Urgesi | 60c | 93.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Alessandra Mazzola | 23c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Federica Urgesi | 47c | 86.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Alessandra Mazzola | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5,352 | 28.8%1,543 W · 3,809 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Federica Urgesi | 69c | 78.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…cac5backed Federica Urgesi | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…f71ebacked Alessandra Mazzola | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 390 | 39.5%154 W · 236 L | -46.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alessandra Mazzola | 43c | 71.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 8,834 | 42.5%3,758 W · 5,076 L | -169.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Federica Urgesi | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Alessandra Mazzola | 33c | 68.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Federica Urgesi | 56c | 62.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 2,899 | 39.6%1,147 W · 1,752 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Alessandra Mazzola | 37c | 61.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…8ff7backed Alessandra Mazzola | 41c | 56.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 394 | 43.9%173 W · 221 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Federica Urgesi | 58c | 52.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 6,867 | 48.9%3,357 W · 3,510 L | +61.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f94…f992backed Federica Urgesi | 62c | 48.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…0dedbacked Federica Urgesi | 60c | 48.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 585 | 39.5%231 W · 354 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Alessandra Mazzola | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Alessandra Mazzola | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 4,684 | 48.3%2,264 W · 2,420 L | +35.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Alessandra Mazzola | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 747 | 46.1%344 W · 403 L | -30.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Alessandra Mazzola | 49c | 30.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,090 | 52.2%1,091 W · 999 L | +17.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Alessandra Mazzola | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Federica Urgesi | 40c | 25.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 287 | 53%152 W · 135 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…206cbacked Alessandra Mazzola | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 856 | 37.7%323 W · 533 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…ba3bbacked Federica Urgesi | 61c | 20.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfca4…e183backed Federica Urgesi | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…3be3backed Federica Urgesi | 58c | 18.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…c696backed Federica Urgesi | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 180 | 72.8%131 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.