Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x148da8e6f3a0aeb0d43a8c7801398ff55e331bfcb12430706b469f0a3e1237d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SSC Napoliof Bologna FC 1909, SSC Napoli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Bologna FC 1909 | 0c | 5,039$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bologna FC 1909 | 20c | 615.62$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1c…7767backed Bologna FC 1909 | 4c | 440$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Bologna FC 1909 | 3c | 423.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Bologna FC 1909 | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed SSC Napoli | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Bologna FC 1909 | 12c | 248.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Bologna FC 1909 | 44c | 228.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bologna FC 1909 | 9c | 197$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked SSC Napoli | 60c | 125.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)this page
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.