Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac3f323022d5c844032c25fa07152cba05f49bf93bfd6c10f2ff45c6ef9c2629
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 11c | 13,452$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.44 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 76c | 721.67$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.65 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…8492backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 25c | 258.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 24c | 203.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…a39bbacked Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 26c | 128.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 9c | 112.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 75c | 100.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 26c | 76.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 74c | 76.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…1619backed Under | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 25c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 25c | 54.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 74c | 50.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Under | 26c | 39.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…d74abacked Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 72c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2677…e0b9backed Over | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.