Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7505ccc86a52ee89c01d94112f498033297f2e4bd9b17e85a953e863ba945d03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 29c | 12,218$3,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,704.57 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 60c | 6,085$3,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,651.09 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Under | 72c | 5,752$4,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,165.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 5,493$3,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,668.38 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 19c | 4,561$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.62 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 3,734$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.16 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked Under | 1c | 3,635$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 73c | 3,225$2,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.49 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 3,163$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.72 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 23c | 2,000$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.91 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 28c | 1,721$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.78 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 33c | 1,344$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.32 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x218d…83f8backed Under | 73c | 938.36$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 57c | 719.3$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.3 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…3289backed Under | 72c | 700$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 71c | 672.78$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.73 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 29c | 660$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +429.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 456.8$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 65c | 430.77$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 23c | 338$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked Under | 44c | 316.2$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.13 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 29c | 315.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.46 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 25c | 305$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.35 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Under | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 26c | 265.38$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.38 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 27c | 240.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.74 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 34c | 239$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.74 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 59c | 203.45$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afc…f7ddbacked Over | 40c | 161.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 27c | 144$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 72c | 141.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 64c | 135.91$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 15c | 122.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 71c | 121$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…11f0backed Over | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 26c | 95.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +14.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 17c | 90.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Under | 68c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 77.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…eb78backed Over | 29c | 77.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 52c | 76.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…3d32backed Under | 74c | 71.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…5cfdbacked Under | 72c | 70.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c3…443ebacked Under | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Over | 27c | 59.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 26c | 58.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 73c | 57.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under | 61c | 54.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…0306backed Under | 73c | 54.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 42c | 52.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Under | 34c | 49.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf870…415dbacked Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 32c | 44.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 71c | 44.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b37…039dbacked Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 46c | 38.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…5f62backed Under | 72c | 32.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e2…20ccbacked Under | 63c | 30.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…b565backed Under | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 60c | 28.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 115 | 47.8%55 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Under | 72c | 26.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 76c | 26.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…e322backed Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over | 75c | 20.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 53c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 72c | 19.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 73c | 17.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6e…6e40backed Under | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.