Mls · resolved market
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-08-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14aae7d3cb3c88016b4522a6a0db8e4ea8f8ffa420f67b0179594a6d96e8b865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 12c | 1,429$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.1 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 53c | 1,068$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed No | 68c | 967$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.06 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 32c | 966$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.12 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Yes | 25c | 942$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.48 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed No | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 46c | 910.43$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.8 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Yes | 47c | 797.87$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 73c | 373.27$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9d…63f9backed Yes | 7c | 321.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 5c | 231.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 19c | 218.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 20c | 210.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 193.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 47c | 187$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 79c | 166$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 75c | 148$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked No | 54c | 147.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked No | 63c | 129.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 77c | 123.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 53c | 123.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 74c | 108.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed No | 78c | 108$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 79 | 74.7%59 W · 20 L | +10.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 78c | 91.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 55c | 90.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 72c | 70.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 79c | 66.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 46c | 53.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Yes | 25c | 51.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 51.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 47c | 50.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 29c | 36.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…dddabacked Yes | 45c | 31.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Yes | 47c | 30.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-08-01?this page
- Will CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution end in a draw?Yes won
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-08-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.