Mls · resolved market
Will CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22fe21a998fe5d58cde1e75d60b0accf5f3650222700559540633b4923f57e84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 12c | 5,314$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,657.5 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 28c | 2,913$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,111.39 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 74c | 2,346$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.4 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Yes | 14c | 1,213$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.32 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 79c | 1,055$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.69 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 398.09$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.59 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…7fd6backed Yes | 13c | 346.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 62c | 243$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.06 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed No | 62c | 234$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.57 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 45c | 233$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 34c | 174$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 142.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.71 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 118$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.32 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 54c | 91.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 74c | 74.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 44c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 48c | 62.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 42c | 62.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Yes | 31c | 56.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 52.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3509…9e45backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 54c | 47.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 72c | 43.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 65c | 43.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Yes | 40c | 36.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…b6e2backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 67c | 24.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 62c | 18.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9d…63f9backed Yes | 65c | 16.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-08-01?No won
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-08-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.