Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c410df3e22c7dfd303118ab0abbc5f0216833ba98f180155c9b73da2f78f3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 7c | 1,424$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 4c | 470.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 211.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 47c | 175.61$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.37 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 170.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 24c | 169.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 149.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 133.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 60c | 118.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 15c | 118$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 17c | 117.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 19c | 101.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 100.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 99.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 99.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 95.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 82.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 67c | 80.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 65c | 71.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 33c | 65.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 55c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 75c | 53.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 30c | 53.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 63c | 50.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf07f…8a62backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 53c | 43.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 42.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 35.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 31.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 37c | 28.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 73c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 18.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 16.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…529cbacked Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.