Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14f878bb089c2546f70223a1daed24612fd1474b7c9220629d73759d06502d32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 2c | 4,766$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 304 | 24.7%75 W · 229 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 3,914$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f39…3c00backed Yes | 0c | 3,716$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,910$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1,369 | 20.7%283 W · 1,086 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 4c | 2,617$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 243 | 44.9%109 W · 134 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,940$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 721 | 39%281 W · 440 L | +37.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 1,523$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,493$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 893.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 44c | 809.48$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.76 | 1,078 | 36.5%393 W · 685 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 2c | 750.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 2c | 665.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 178 | 27%48 W · 130 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 2c | 642.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 520 | 22.5%117 W · 403 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 7c | 326.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 4c | 304.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 291.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 4c | 290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 311 | 32.2%100 W · 211 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 4c | 289.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 363 | 22.9%83 W · 280 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 30c | 283.77$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 23c | 236.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 495 | 23.6%117 W · 378 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 30c | 232.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 4c | 231.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 8c | 216.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 489 | 32.7%160 W · 329 L | +22.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 14c | 185.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 15c | 152.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0a…a70bbacked Yes | 33c | 122.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 71c | 114.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 95.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 16c | 89.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 915 | 34.3%314 W · 601 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed Yes | 26c | 81.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 81.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 65c | 76.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 59.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 470 | 63.6%299 W · 171 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked No | 77c | 25.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 64c | 20.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 18.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.