Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x775a07093875c8425ecbf99c65e6b43167a5b9aca9f138fc2e62e09b77660c39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f39…3c00backed Yes | 0c | 5,065$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 8c | 4,271$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.16 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 60c | 1,518$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.08 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 5c | 1,401$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 39c | 894.14$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 15c | 833.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 759.12$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 627.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 23c | 600.21$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.28 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 60c | 574.24$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.25 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 20c | 501.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.05 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 474.74$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.68 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 21c | 444.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 63c | 415$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.97 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 47c | 371.63$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.83 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 349.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 301.69$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 15c | 284.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 62c | 259.31$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 47c | 239.85$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 18c | 216.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 207.95$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ab50backed No | 50c | 201$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 61c | 197.73$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7880…a793backed Yes | 15c | 192.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 22c | 179.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 178.01$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 174.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 171.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 49c | 166.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 15c | 159.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 71c | 151.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 32c | 146.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 143.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 66c | 140.23$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 41c | 139.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3514…e337backed Yes | 11c | 137.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 23c | 125.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…6922backed Yes | 17c | 124.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 35c | 123.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed No | 79c | 120.13$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 111.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 111$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 20c | 110.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 59c | 108.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 10c | 99.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 64c | 93.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 93.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 12c | 90.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 84.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 55c | 81.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 32c | 78.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…799abacked No | 61c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 67.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 71c | 66.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…f700backed No | 65c | 66.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 66.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 58c | 64.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 46c | 60.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…7d9bbacked No | 50c | 60.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 34c | 58.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 57.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 64c | 54.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 27c | 54.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 53.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d4…a3d5backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…5c87backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d8ebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 54c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 34c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked No | 25c | 49.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 23c | 48.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 41c | 44.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…d99bbacked Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 34c | 41.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed Yes | 52c | 39.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1b…3d6fbacked Yes | 44c | 38.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 64c | 38.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 34.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.