Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cc5a8e573c82a1047c50741effe60d3cdb11639a43b364bdc430c91a5caeaa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c10…ab50backed No | 48c | 838.28$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.28 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 48c | 810.98$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.84 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 45c | 682$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.7 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…7d78backed Yes | 42c | 494.39$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 63c | 440.19$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.75 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 390.83$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.93 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 56c | 363.47$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.13 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 40c | 320.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 312.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 300.42$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 34c | 300.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…8cc1backed No | 72c | 278.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 52c | 263$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 253.36$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 245.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 49c | 242.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 61c | 240.44$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.07 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 208.72$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 203.4$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 179.63$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 30c | 161.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 34c | 160.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 157.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 52c | 149.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 73c | 143$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 62c | 137.65$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 128$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 73c | 122.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 120.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 57c | 120.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 36c | 115.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 111$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 33c | 109$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 47c | 102.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 58c | 91.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 59c | 84.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 32c | 82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 28c | 80.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 38c | 79.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 72.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 27c | 70.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 29c | 64.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 64.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 29c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 61.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 58.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 57.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…d99bbacked Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 76c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 52.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 63c | 52.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938c…2d5dbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…5c87backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 31c | 48.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 39.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 38.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 54c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 49c | 34.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 61c | 32.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed No | 71c | 29.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 54c | 22.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 61c | 21.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…7d9bbacked No | 65c | 19.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…5628backed No | 75c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 18.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 72c | 15.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf147…df5cbacked No | 67c | 15.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 15.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 73c | 14.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 80c | 12.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.