Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf0e3121b1511f286f25193c203244cdb4f4767c8e2b1ab9cf4e801ea3e7d94f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f39…3c00backed Yes | 0c | 5,040$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,186$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 1,152$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 62c | 1,025$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 41c | 999.71$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.02 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 11c | 876.83$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 38c | 799.81$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.88 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 40c | 797.85$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.3 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 48c | 586.49$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.82 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 21c | 564.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 49c | 551.72$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.88 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 41c | 437.58$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.65 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 18c | 400$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 381.18$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.94 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 59c | 380.01$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.51 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 340.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 333.44$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 277.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 64c | 273.55$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 251.01$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 67c | 246.79$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa40…02d9backed Yes | 13c | 222.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 44c | 201.24$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 192.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…8c15backed Yes | 17c | 180.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 179.63$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 17c | 171$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 60c | 155.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 53c | 149.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 147.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 17c | 143.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked No | 49c | 142.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 59c | 142.63$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 18c | 139.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 138.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 42c | 126.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 75c | 125.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 67c | 124.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 25c | 123.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 120.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 57c | 119.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed Yes | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 93.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 21c | 93.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 92.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 88.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 55c | 85.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…7739backed Yes | 38c | 82.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 30c | 78.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 53c | 77.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked No | 78c | 77.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 74.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 71.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 59.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 57c | 56.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 40c | 53.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 65c | 52.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 44c | 51.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 40c | 50.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d8ebacked Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 49.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…799abacked No | 44c | 48.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 47.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…7d9bbacked No | 44c | 45.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 65c | 42.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 58c | 42.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked No | 41c | 38.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 73c | 33.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 40c | 32.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 62c | 32.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 62c | 31.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd9…2b6ebacked No | 60c | 23.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked No | 54c | 23.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 63c | 22.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 20.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8529…1449backed No | 63c | 19.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…6441backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…3b53backed No | 79c | 19.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 17.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed Yes | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.