Asian League · resolved market
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15257d04f246e6391388a4f35733b8d20e8de2f46a5ab1e40e4213289e707cbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea32…8870backed Yes | 41c | 18,494$7,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,911.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…6fc0backed No | 59c | 18,291$10,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,829.14 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 59c | 4,154$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.14 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 2,752$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.01 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 40c | 1,421$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.16 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 70c | 887$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.9 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 28c | 560.34$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.44 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked No | 18c | 420$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 26c | 304.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…f334backed No | 58c | 174.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 6c | 173.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 242 | 47.9%116 W · 126 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 48c | 160.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 154.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked No | 33c | 151.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 72c | 143.59$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Yes | 67c | 122.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 47c | 118.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 76c | 117$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…819abacked Yes | 54c | 96.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 31c | 95.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 40c | 90.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked No | 49c | 89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0948…1ebbbacked Yes | 80c | 87.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 30c | 85.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 28c | 84.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 70c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 71c | 69.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556a…273cbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 28c | 67.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 68c | 65.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 33c | 53.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes | 76c | 47.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…e033backed Yes | 23c | 43.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 63c | 39.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 52c | 36.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 256 | 53.5%137 W · 119 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 55c | 25.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf75b…ed74backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c0…2489backed No | 47c | 23.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 53c | 20.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…122dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-04-17?No won
- Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-04-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.