Serie A · resolved market
Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x152b9011ce792b11238a575711d2827caa831327b0daf27935f243182edad43c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,185 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 15c | 1,556$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.35 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,390$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.86 | 2,575 | 45.6%1,174 W · 1,401 L | +12.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 12c | 1,250$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.65 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 982.74$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.99 | 2,013 | 39.4%794 W · 1,219 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Over | 80c | 753.51$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Under | 10c | 599.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 68c | 367.65$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 68c | 227.94$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 61c | 215.58$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 29c | 156.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.84 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 65c | 152.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Under | 60c | 115$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 17c | 65.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…d1c9backed Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…16a1backed Over | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5this page
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-2.5)Pisa SC won
- Spread: Pisa SC (-1.5)Pisa SC won
- Spread: Pisa SC (-2.5)Cagliari Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.