Serie A · resolved market
Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaab2a68b9de45553a0624c597505d4f8047e7656d275b7316d048127768895d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,203 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 1,633$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.75 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 6c | 1,250$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 55c | 842$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.39 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 52c | 824.37$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.85 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 794.38$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.97 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 640.46$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.08 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 57c | 606.35$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.34 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 51c | 385.4$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…474dbacked Over | 52c | 278.85$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 52c | 254.52$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.41 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Over | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 58c | 172.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 168.02$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 133.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 20c | 115.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 54c | 95.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 115 | 47.8%55 W · 60 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 56c | 95.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 34c | 67.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…e4dabacked Over | 50c | 60.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…dcf5backed Over | 46c | 51.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…d1c9backed Over | 50c | 51.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 53c | 35.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 53c | 32.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 55c | 18.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5this page
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-2.5)Pisa SC won
- Spread: Pisa SC (-1.5)Pisa SC won
- Spread: Pisa SC (-2.5)Cagliari Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.