Serie A · resolved market
Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd44014148eaa7aea04a97261be3f216ed903036d9ad3c80c2f8ca72e3c7c4f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,465 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 16,027$5,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,786.5 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 63c | 13,000$8,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,809.88 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.99 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 3c | 1,719$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +275.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Under | 3c | 1,698$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 76c | 977.2$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.53 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 857.06$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 75c | 534.47$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.62 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 36c | 376.15$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.05 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Over | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Under | 20c | 303.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 38c | 276.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 21c | 250.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 22c | 239.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Under | 36c | 234$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Over | 64c | 182.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 176.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 36c | 138.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed Over | 62c | 136$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Over | 62c | 135$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…c739backed Under | 36c | 125.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 78c | 111.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 39c | 107.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 63c | 79.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 39c | 76.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 36c | 61.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…d1c9backed Over | 74c | 61.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 35c | 47.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 385 | 47.8%184 W · 201 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 34c | 46.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 39c | 42.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Over | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 38c | 38.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 37c | 37.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…e629backed Over | 64c | 35.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 36c | 33.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 38c | 32.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ae…4c2cbacked Under | 37c | 32.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 46c | 28.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 72c | 27.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 62c | 24.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Over | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Over | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Over | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5this page
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-2.5)Pisa SC won
- Spread: Pisa SC (-1.5)Pisa SC won
- Spread: Pisa SC (-2.5)Cagliari Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.