Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x152d38cb1ccb60e488b9dc334712ace441f15894b6b8fe4bfe085c7628cdab01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 2c | 635.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 325.9$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 25c | 310.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 31c | 290.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 64c | 275.36$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.33 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 8c | 237.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 17c | 207.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 45c | 184.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 11c | 174.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 160.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 130.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 125.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 40c | 102.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 55c | 77.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 75.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 71c | 70.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…af35backed No | 73c | 68.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 67c | 64.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 64c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…d020backed No | 17c | 59.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 20c | 57.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 27c | 54.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…96afbacked Yes | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 34c | 53.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 68c | 50.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 34c | 48.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 42c | 47.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 73c | 44.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 68c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 41c | 41.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 40.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 35c | 29.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…b333backed Yes | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…d865backed Yes | 48c | 27.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 25.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.