Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x152d8008cd0a6a646e4f52001b104b8473f8fbfc1b74a5114a4de85f1386d2cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Team Spirit | 69c | 15,393$10,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,708.95 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 1win | 31c | 12,109$3,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,694.17 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…4eeebacked 1win | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 21c | 5,748$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.78 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Team Spirit | 80c | 3,744$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.73 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked 1win | 15c | 2,423$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.22 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked 1win | 37c | 1,729$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.67 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked 1win | 23c | 1,563$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked Team Spirit | 72c | 999.99$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed 1win | 35c | 960.02$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.21 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed 1win | 27c | 890.48$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.54 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed 1win | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Team Spirit | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfe…5247backed Team Spirit | 77c | 388.64$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed 1win | 26c | 302.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ac…86d0backed 1win | 43c | 231.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed 1win | 22c | 179.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…18ffbacked Team Spirit | 65c | 154.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked Team Spirit | 77c | 143.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Team Spirit | 65c | 136.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Team Spirit | 75c | 119.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed 1win | 25c | 117.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked 1win | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Team Spirit | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f6…f506backed Team Spirit | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked 1win | 27c | 99.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked 1win | 27c | 94.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed 1win | 19c | 81.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e5…bad7backed 1win | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…d660backed 1win | 34c | 62.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Spirit | 78c | 53.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Team Spirit | 66c | 42.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked 1win | 29c | 35.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce5…8e89backed Team Spirit | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Team Spirit | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ece…8211backed Team Spirit | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs 1win (BO3)Team Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.