TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs 1win (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, 1win
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,941 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x046e…1d14backed 1win0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe391…02a0backed 1win0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb0d…1d6dbacked 1win2c5,083$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.66205%1 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid+150%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed 1win0c3,947$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.436169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 1win17c2,831$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.6373841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed 1win15c2,724$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.6719147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked 1win10c2,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19034146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed 1win3c1,988$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.355751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed 1win13c1,734$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.0318452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed 1win16c1,708$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.323228.1%9 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-46%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked 1win19c1,472$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.4339936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed 1win15c1,335$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.252634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed 1win14c1,219$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.714932.7%16 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed 1win17c1,188$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008137%30 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec61…4a2ebacked Team Spirit80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20010941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50b5…c19cbacked 1win17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 1win2c901.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.32,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a05…0329backed 1win1c871.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.593625%9 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-39.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51ec…a7b9backed 1win3c799.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.59423.4%22 W · 72 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked 1win9c677.4$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.110338.8%40 W · 63 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed 1win18c640$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.262841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed 1win10c639.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3636442.3%154 W · 210 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Spirit80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12547660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed 1win18c599.78$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7449133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed 1win15c438.56$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9801…1ab6backed 1win14c338.95$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.454436.4%16 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-21.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed 1win14c251.92$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.525044%22 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4b…f8fbbacked 1win15c230$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.55137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed 1win12c193.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.314537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed 1win16c160.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252619.2%5 W · 21 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-59.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 1win13c160.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8760542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20e7…e22ebacked 1win15c160$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8786…c271backed 1win15c160$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…1202backed 1win15c160$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked 1win16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.518649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab3…5fa4backed 1win16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f9…432abacked 1win15c99.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e5…bad7backed 1win12c93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed 1win18c90$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.277941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked 1win14c75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.514251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a6e…fad0backed Team Spirit80c75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152560%15 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Team Spirit80c75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1580544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked 1win18c63.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1430138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x514b…ad6abacked 1win16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit77c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.11,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b28…02dbbacked Team Spirit80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a73…9daabacked Team Spirit80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.52875%21 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.