La Liga · resolved market
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1544284aa099baa5136016bbd1b7fa2f2c786a496aee37488b9804be103623c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $282,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 9c | 37,831$3,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,402.13 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 1c | 27,044$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.22 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 9c | 12,225$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.49 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 9c | 4,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,392$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.75 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes | 10c | 2,177$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.69 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,437$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.78 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes | 7c | 1,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…eba4backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 9c | 1,091$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 172 | 52.3%90 W · 82 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…c4b7backed Yes | 7c | 1,030$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…247dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ea…e3e3backed Yes | 4c | 723.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 10c | 613.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 9c | 599.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 150 | 49.3%74 W · 76 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Yes | 9c | 550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 9c | 490.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…2a61backed Yes | 10c | 440$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 9c | 376$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…2b8bbacked Yes | 10c | 255.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 9c | 200.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 9c | 183.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a7…90f4backed Yes | 10c | 176.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 36%50 W · 89 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…52dbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…c9ddbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 16.3%17 W · 87 L | -10.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?No won
- Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.