MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x154a794fefd8b255172180136478343c2f7739c7f409a1d97c1a59f46eea79b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Miami Marlins, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,276 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Houston Astros | 57c | 1,741$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.74 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 1,500$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.88 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Houston Astros | 56c | 1,183$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.9 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 1,088$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.22 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…2484backed Houston Astros | 54c | 670.39$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 438$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 55c | 425.65$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.75 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 396.8$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.59 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Houston Astros | 54c | 332.16$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 258.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.28 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 250$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…04aabacked Houston Astros | 54c | 246.3$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 217$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Houston Astros | 56c | 170$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Houston Astros | 55c | 148.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 76c | 147$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 123.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 99.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 80.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Houston Astros | 56c | 79.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 67.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Houston Astros | 55c | 65.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Houston Astros | 54c | 60.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 60.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 387 | 68.5%265 W · 122 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Houston Astros | 64c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Houston Astros | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed Houston Astros | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…2a7ebacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked Houston Astros | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 946 | 55.3%523 W · 423 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 35.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 26.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Houston Astros | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Houston Astros | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Houston Astros | 53c | 19.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Houston Astros | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…dd93backed Houston Astros | 53c | 18.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Houston Astros | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.